"Project"Long candle" Prior forecasting long trends"

Speero

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Hello!


I was going to open a thread in the forum, but all hands did not reach. And finally decided.

To begin with - a bit of history. On the forum I have a couple of years. unlike Forex, which involved varying intervals for about 10 years.

In the beginning, as probably most, I was fascinated by the unlimited income opportunity in the market counted the points of all movements up and down and visualize myself a millionaire in a couple of weeks. However, the process "somewhat delayed"...Now, looking back, with the current experience, only bitter smile. How naive I was then (as in other matters, many beginners now).

Pink veil from eyes slept, remained harsh reality of the market everyday. "Optimistic wagging tail" in anticipation of a fabulous regular profits - is also gone. It remains only judgment.

In fact, all of us, traders (both experienced and beginners) I dream to find my "Grail". Which (by the method of elimination, trial and exceptions) consists of only two points: know in advance the turning point value (to capture the movement of the maximum) and capture the maximum possible length of movement (the goal is the same).

If the pivot points are basically all more or less clear (correctional Fibo levels, pivot points, boundaries, corridors, completed patterns, trengove line and other methods), then the duration of motion is not so simple. That is, well...a Turn we caught...But what movement will follow this turn? Whether the game was worth the candle game? These questions are still relevant and it is with them we will try to understand this topic.

The idea of creating themes arose long ago. However, the relevance of practical implementation of ideas in life after meeting here on the forum counterpart and soul mate. If You liked this topic - join us for reflection and discussion. Add your own ideas, your vision of solving this issue.

In the subject it is planned to consider issues of forecasting extended price movements in one direction. Will theoretical data (views of the classics), practical information (strategies from different authors, up to the most exotic of options, outlining the applied indicators, templates and classification of incoming signals), laboratory work ( movement prediction in online mode according to their own ideas. a combination of various indicators for the preliminary calculation of the alleged "long candle") and many more. In addition we are planning to publish a variety of indicators, expert advisors and scripts (found earlier in the forum and found other resources), which in one way or another can help in solving the basic ideas of the topic, which (remember) is still not solved and remains relevant SEARCH LONG CANDLE

in Short: it will not be boring. Anyone interested is welcome to join the discussion.
 

Speero

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So, let's begin. Preface passed, stipulate the content of the topic. For a start Pongau and will have:

Name
: Sergey; Gender: male; Age: almost 47 (in General, an adult. It is possible to address on "you", I'm not a hypochondriac); residence: Ukraine, Poltava; market: 10 years with periodic activity;



The work plan assumes that: in the beginning of the topic - an introductory theoretical part , mark smiley
bring your own observations, recommendations and examples of practice. Maybe I will repeat someone's ideas and thoughts. But this is not plagiarism. Just not very convenient when, instead of explanations is a reference to another resource, subject, post in another thread. So I will try for the convenience to all the necessary information was at hand, in the same branch. For ease of understanding.



Own interpretation of some concepts and phenomena in the Forex




Current issues requiring resolution (and theoretically solvable) are labeled with a smiley face
. That may be a signal to the active discussion as of yet.

Practical tips and observations I will mark


Laboratory work and experiments -


The introductory part is over. Go directly to the point.
 

Speero

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Start our countdown on the reverse.

Strong movements in the market are not amenable or weakly amenable preliminary forecast

On the market quite often there are long candles, or candles with long shadows in inappropriate places. They are usually caused by large injections of funds on the part of major players (banks, for example), or manipulations of market makers (a type of false breakouts and removal of stops). If they occur in the moment of news release, that more or less can be expected. But sometimes they meet in the most unexpected place, which often becomes the cause of death of small deposits, not insured by stop-loss. They have a pulsed character, quickly completed, thus committing a serious outburst from maximum to minimum, sometimes several hundred points.

We have to admit that this fact exists, there's nothing you can do about it. So you have to accept...


Sometimes these candles occur at the time of correction, or sluggishly flowing trend. Of course, you can drag the output of any insignificant news such as:"Laying the first layer of asphalt on the fifth turn to the village "Red coup"...But I think that in this case, this argument is a weak excuse...



This can be attributed to price gaps (gaps). Not to say that they are quite impossible to predict. But it is quite difficult.

From my own observations: If the price had unsuccessfully "hollowed" in the level, and logically should continue its movement in the selected direction, then it is likely that serious interested players will make a "financial injection" and in the end will push the level. Which chart will look like the gap



Another, slightly easy to predict the phenomenon on the market is the pin bar. But, the particular phenomenon sharpen your concentration in the next post.
 

Speero

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Strong movements in the market poorly amenable to a preliminary forecast







Pin-bar - definition candle with a very long shadow and a small body (at least three times less shade) taken in the system of "Price action". This is usually a very long and notable candle, often a reversal signal. The place of its origin, in principle, predictable and expected. As well as the reasons for its occurrence. However, one can predict that this place will be exactly pin-bar is quite difficult.

The pin bar has other names. A lot of names for his invented "Candlestick analysis". This: "hammer, inverted hammer", "the hanged man", "shooting star" and others. The difference of interpretation is that it is important in what place on the market this candlestick appeared. Quite often, the body is absent, and as such then it becomes a "tombstone" (if there is on top), or "dragon" (if on bottom).

But without venturing into the wilds of candlestick analysis (for this, there are other issues) and for simplicity we will call such long candle pin-bar.



Where are the pin-bars?
most Often on the bottom and on the top of the movement, as well as in places of false breakouts. That is why they often serve as a turn signal. But it doesn't always happen. There are methods to determine is the pin-bar reversal signal or not

signs of a reversal pin-bar:

1) Candle stands out among the other size (usually very long shadow.The longer the better);

2) an Additional advantage of the rebound is free space in the historical part of the chart prior to appearing pin-bar (a kind of emptiness, space, vacuum. The price for a long time did not go to the area in which the pin-bar);

3) the Important point of the turn is the fulcrum. That is his tail pin-bar must reach/slightly permeate or the level of support/resistance, or a level of correction of Fibonacci, or the channel boundary (upper or lower), or pivot, or a trend. Anything. In short the bearing is necessary.

4) the Appearance of the pin bar is often accompanied by a surge of volume. After that, the previous trend in most of the cases either goes flat or changes direction;

the Definition of a "true" pin-bar on character build (from my own observations. For active use in practice requires additional testing
)







The figure shows two options for forming the same candles. The result is two candles are exactly the same. However, on closer examination (on a smaller timeframe), you may notice that in the first embodiment, the inverse (bearish) the formed weak candles. And most likely the pin bar is false. The upward movement will continue.

In the second variant presents the formation of a "true pin-bar, which can be a reversal. Moving up consists of medium or small candles. A bearish pullback presented a strong, full-weight candles. This development often appear when the false break through the level, taking out the stops. The figure below shows the option for the bull market. To bear - it is exactly the opposite. There is a perception that the color of the body of the pin bar is not essential.

Ways of torgovcy pin bars:







the screen presents options pin bar:

1) the Classical scheme of trade. Often after the formation of this candles price is at least 50% of its shadow, and then unfolds. Stop order is placed on a couple of points above/below the end of the shadow.

2) the Second variant of testing pin-bar, which is considered a stronger signal on the candlestick chart analysis - top "Tweezers" (there is also the basis of the "Tweezer"). It is considered that when you reach certain peaks, especially if the previous movement continued for a long time, the price for a turn requires a more solid Foundation than a single pin-bar. So there is confirmation of the level before price finally reverses. Stop is placed the same way. Also this formation can be called a "double top"

3) Sometimes the second approach to the level slightly exceeds the high/low of the pin bar. A kind of "false breakout", "the takeaway" too close together stops. That breakdown about you can be guided by the rules mentioned above (if the price pierces the sluggish level, and then sharply goes - so the "take-away" was held)



No matter how much we know about the formation and trade in the variety of a long candle, the method of forecasting its occurrence has not developed yet. So that is something to think about
 

Speero

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<blockquote>
Strong movements in the market poorly amenable to a preliminary forecast

Another phenomenon in the market, poorly amenable to preliminary estimates, the result of a "Strong candle" is of course a news release. Especially important economic. Unlike in General not predictable, in which we do not know neither time nor place of occurrence, here we at least know the time of release. And you can prepare. Most often, the most recommends that you close the trade in 15 minutes before the news and not trading for half an hour until passions subside. And the truth is: sometimes the candles on the news reach enormous sizes. The truth is not always known which way "trample". However, there are a number of traders are actively trading it on the news bursts, very profitable.

One of the ways the preliminary forecast of the reaction to the news is a thorough analysis of the previous situation. If the market all the parameters have reached its full potential of movement in a particular direction, then it is likely that the news will be a sharp reversal. That, however, is not an axiom. Sometimes the market makes a sharp attack against any logic (another variant of the removal of stops), and then abruptly turns around and moves in the opposite direction with renewed and redoubled force.



One of the options of predict the movement on the news, and the underdevelopment of the situation (of private practice)

as one of possible variants of the definition of "pererasti" the situation on the market you can suggest a strategy Vlada Gilkey (not top of dreams, but something is)







For those of you not familiar with the rules for trading this system will shortly announce the conditions. The strategy uses 2 indicators: MA Chanels FIBO (lines on the chart) and MomPinboll (the light in the basement)

The signal for a trade is when the price is in the area between the orange and the red line of the indicator (or more than red) and MomPinboll crosses level 70, or 30. This kind of "reversal" strategy. That is for sale the price must be at the upper red line, and MomPinboll exceed the level of 70. And to buy respectively, the lower red line and the intersection of level 30. Timeframe - 15 minutes.

Strategy, in one word. A lot of false signals. Sometimes the entry signals in the market follow one another. And the price continues to move in the selected direction. Why I published it then?

The fact that I use it a little differently. Reversal signals I take only when they are observed simultaneously on multiple timeframes (for example according to the system of three screens of an elder. 15 minutes 1 hour and 4 hours) If before the release of important news for the selected tool (pair) system on all timeframes showed an upward movement (for example), then it is likely that in the process "news splash" the price will go up (although it may tickle the removal of stops). Archive with indicators and template is attached.

nevertheless, The qualitative prediction of direction of price movement after the news release remains on the agenda as the issue is not resolved on the prediction of long candles


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Speero

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<blockquote>
Strong movements in the market poorly amenable to a preliminary forecast

And the last in this subsection, a phenomenon that can be called "closeprogram" - is out of flat. Usually the exit of the flat (especially prolonged) is characterized by significant price spikes. And than longer flat, the more possible the exhaust. Ethe only problem is no one exactly can say when this flat will end. So that is something to think about.
co-dependency of the length of the flat and force the "exhaust" must be somehow expressed in a mathematical formula. But there is nothing clever in a head does not come.

the Only offer (so far as laboratory studies) can offer a combination of indicators ADX and Bollinger BandWidth







The idea came spontaneously. The fact is that
Bollinger BandWidth shows the distance between the extreme lines of the envelope Bollinger. Which, as you know with the flat narrowing, and the trend is increasing. Low values of this indicator indicate a narrowing of the envelope, high - expansion. In an additional filter is used ADX, which orientirueshsya, in which direction will be output. The system is buggy ( for example for each timeframe recommend your threshold signal Bollinger BandWidth. On H1 it is approximately 0.0030. The lower the timeframe, the more sensitive/less than the threshold value). You can experiment with common parameters. Is left default. Indicator and template attached. </blockquote>
 

Igor2009

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Many theoretical assumptions... And going to trade I personally did not understand. As I do not understand about the search of a long candle. Much of the text and the theme has not been disclosed. Reminds all webinars from professionals the Forex that for hours nonsense just for the sake of views on YouTube, naver
 

Speero

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Oh! There are live traders. It makes me happy!

If You read the subject more or less closely, I'm at the very beginning of suggested content (post # 2) First the introductory theoretical part. For fans of pictures marked with emoticons. Why is it necessary? In the process of development topics could be within the same theme to apply to a specific post, and the quote (as I have done, for example, in this message).

While considered the first part, the most unpromising Places where it is difficult to predict the price direction and strength of the movement. The attention is focused on current issues requiring resolution. I was just about to go to the second part of the theoretical material. About places on the market that are amenable to calculation and prediction. But stumbled upon Your post here and respond.

Directly practical approaches (tools, strategies, etc., which are characterized by a strong directional movement, mainly consisting of "long candles") are planned after the presentation of the theoretical part. In this thread the theory is a kind of "quick reminder" set of instructions for further daily use.

If You are only interested in the practical aspect, in a nutshell, without chewing, to trade on the classics enough confident possession of the three tools (a kind of "three pillars of trading": the theory of Elliot (at least in General terms), technical analysis (the most basic: reversal patterns and continuation) and Andrew's pitchfork. As the filter can be supplemented with Fibonacci retracement levels. And trade their own health in a profit! If it is short and unbearable.



If You the theoretical part of the topic are not interested and itching for "to trade" - bear with me. Because the next couple of posts will also wear theoretically/encyclopedic nature. The rest is more practice (theoretical retreat will be rare to explore tactics and strategies that can be useful for solving the main problem of this topic, namely the prediction of a "Long candle")



P. S. Personally, my minimum task for the future - identify specific places on a chart where price will come in the near future (time and price). I think to achieve this in the process of development of the theme directly in a living, not on history.
 

Speero

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We will not pay attention to the discontent and murmurs. And continue to stay the course. So:

Long-term movement, amenable to analysis. How and with what?(Tools)



Perhaps we should start with the basics. So the question arises: "...isn't it time we, my friends, we take a swing at Ralph, ...m-m-m ... you know...our Elliot?"

I won't go into all the "hard" aspects of the theory of Elliot (so as not to be criticized). On this theory has been discussed a million times on the web, and here on the forum. So enough simple "napominalochki"







In a nutshell: the market is made schematically to indicate so. Five waves in the direction of the major trend ( three impulse and two corrective 1,3,5 2,4) and three wave correction ( A and C impulse and correction (correction?) In). Despite the fact that Elliot developed his theory for securities market and considered only the traffic growth on Forex this arrangement is fair for both bullish and bearish markets.

But it is important not only to draw a picture, or find anything remotely resembling this build in the price chart. Traffic on Elliott theory must meet certain criteria:



1) Wave 2 never needs to go beyond the origin of wave 1;

2) Wave 3 cannot be the shortest;

3) Wave 4 should not go beyond the end of wave 1 (although in some formations limit is the level of the beginning of wave formation 3);



This is axiom. That is, the rules of wave formation, which should not be violated under any circumstances. There are also rules, which are welcome, but are not critical.

1) From the pulse wave patvanhove "stretched" can be only one (most often wave 3);

2) Corrective waves (2,4) rarely duplicated. If the wave 2 is a complex correction, wave 4 is likely to be simple. If wave 2 is a triangle, it is likely that wave 4 will not be in the form of a triangle. Such a kind of rule of alternation. It can also be attributed to a "truncated" 5th wave. If one impulse fifth wave of "Orthodox" ("truncated", i.e. does not exceed the high of wave 3), the next switching movement is likely to be ordinary course of events.



Despite the apparent simplicity and logic of Elliott: many supporters and opponents. The fact is that it is quite difficult to determine accurately the wave. Because the market often there are "lengthening" of the pulse waves and a complex correction. To describe them in detail makes no sense, because that is another topic. The most important thing I said.



It remains to note. Maybe the Elliott and not the ideal guide to the jungle of trading. But, at least, allows more or less focus in any market place we are and what we should expect.
 

Speero

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Why I described the theory of Elliott and what does it have to paiku and forecasting "Long candle"? The most direct!

First of all: the Elliott works always and everywhere. But pretty stupid to look for strong and long-term formation on the adjustments a five-minute timeframe. So we decided on the place where it makes sense to look for such formation.

Secondly: after determining the position of the wound at the Elliott theory on a larger timeframe (e.g. day), it is logical to seek long formation in the development process of impulse wave (e.g. on the hour).

In addition to all of the Elliott theory you can extract a lot "of useful Goodies" that can help in practical trading. Offer some of them to your attention:

practical Utility for trade (derived from the Elliott theory)

1) Because the waves are never followed by one, after the formation of impulse wave (five-Podval) it is logical to expect the emergence of yet another, at least similar. The logic is simple. No matter what kind of movement is a correction to the main motion, or momentum. The third wave should be in any case. If the movement pulse, the third wave cannot be less than the first (post # 9, axiom 2). If the corrective movement (travallowi), the third wave very often repeats the first. The exception to this is the shape "triangle". But there are pluses: the nature and relation of the waves can understand that there is on the market and how it should behave;







2) Usually waves alternate with each other (5-3-5-3). If there are two opposite patvanhove means this place is either the beginning of a correction or the beginning of the pulse. The sequence is 3-3-3-3 found only in the adjustments;

3) Many traders have long noticed a pattern. If the wave exceeds the dimensions of the first (sometimes significantly), from this we can draw two conclusions:

a) most likely the movement of the pulse and the expected formation of the fifth wave;

b) in this scenario, the fifth wave is usually equal to wave 1. No matter where started.







4) Because all waves are composed of podvoll smaller scale (pulse mainly of five 5-3-5-3-5, correction mainly of three - 5-3-5 (corrective waves other options, for example 5-3-3), it is possible to calculate in advance the risks from the entrance in the determination of the wave number 1









From Elliott theory, we can conclude that the most valuable is precisely the grip of the third wave. Which is very often "extended" and the most profitable. While there are no techniques that can help to determine exactly what the forthcoming wave to be to lengthen (at least I have not seen). So if you have such information I will be glad to listen. Otherwise, there is a subject for reflection




At the conclusion of this post I want to offer a tactic described in the book Tom Joseph "Simplified Elliott wave analysis"







This oscillator is determined by a third wave theory of Elliott. And for the further development of events is based trade tactics (fourth and fifth wave). Unfortunately the second of the indicator appearing in the system in the network not found (Profit Taking Index Profit taking). Can anyone can tell than it can be replaced?

To paint the entire trading strategy on this system don't see the point. Description it occupies 80 pages. For those who wish to see are making the book, as well as the indicator and template.
 

Speero

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Developing the theme about predicting a "Long candle" not to mention about several techniques that are actively used in Torgoule.

Long-term movement, amenable to analysis. How and with what?(Tools)



the Wolfe Wave

the Wolfe Wave is a graphical education that is shaped like a wedge. A characteristic feature is:

1) Clearly distinguished the traffic shaping node 2;

2) Through points 1-3-5 is possible to draw a straight line connecting the vertices;



the Rules of formation of Wolfe waves

1) After formed price point forms a point 3, which should be above/below point 1 (depending on the generated wave);

2) Point 4 must be located below/above the point 1, but must not exceed the level of point 2.

3) Point 5 is determined by the tangency of price lines drawn through the points 1-3;



Application in practice

Point 5 is considered to be the starting point for trading the Wolfe wave. The expected reversal of prices and the achievement of the goal line, which is determined by drawing a line through points 1-4. A feature of this tactic is the existence of so-called "sweet-zone", in which the price can go after reaching point 5. "Sweet-zone" is determined by drawing a line parallel to a line drawn through points 2-4 and deferred from point 3.





Practicing Wolfe waves is a very good place to search for "Long candle", especially if this wave is detected at a sufficiently large time frame.

Best Wolfe wave, as derived from the theory of Elliot, to look at places of education, corrections, or during the formation of the 5th wave, which often takes the form of a wedge. As you can see, the data system well complement each other. The output of correction in the direction of the main trend, as well as the global correction after the completion of the 5-Oh can be simultaneous processing and the theory of Elliot and Wolfe waves.



And perhaps in the end the theoretical part of the search and prediction of long and predictable movements it is worth mentioning a technique which allows to determine the level of correction of the major trend, and the end time of the correction, referred to as "the Method of Z - and S-combinations" used "Tactics Adverza"









Using this technique you can predict the price direction on higher timeframe, and are based on the information received to come in and look for long candles on the younger. For those wishing to see the "Tactics Adverza", at least superficially (and there is indeed quite interesting) add an archive document. In addition, the forum has a thread devoted to the Donna theme.



It's certainly not all the ways and methods. However, there is no special desire to prolong. With additional tools and techniques we will get acquainted in the process of practice and further development of the topic
 

Speero

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As an epilogue to the theoretical part of the topic a little digression.

Personally, in my understanding of trading - something akin to martial arts. Well, judge for yourself: trend the directional movement - attacking style, flat, correction movement - defending style. Needs constant training, maintenance and self-improvement.

Sometimes it is considered sufficient to master one tool or technique to become a professional. There are traders who consider themselves bulls or to bears. There are prefer to trade in trend and those who see the prospect of trading in the flat. Some people prefer to automate their trading, someone who likes to trade manually. But it seems to me that true professionalism in trading is the ability to Orient in a situation and to act according to circumstances applying the appropriate techniques and tactics. After all, if you are a professional trade during corrections, skillfully using the testimony of the oscillators, while the trend will lose money. And if you feel great during significant price movements, focusing on moving averages or other trend indicators and technology, it is flat can you "win". So my choice is versatility.

In previous posts we briefly got acquainted with places suited to different trading styles. Since the main theme of the project - search for "big candle", I think I clarified the situation a bit where and what we look for. Well, longer turn to the practical part of our subject. "More action - less words!", as the saying goes. See you soon in subsequent posts.

 

Speero

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As I slightly started the topic. Was a bit busy. But now you can continue.

So: "Forecasting Long candle". In agreement with the co-author of the topic (which at the last moment included a backing, which is not in my habits...I usually bring matter to its logical conclusion...) the timeframe we have 15 minutes, the size of the candle - a minimum of 20 points. Where they can be met, we discussed in the theoretical part. Now - practice.

For market analysis we need an indicator search engine. I chose a Stream that searches and highlights bars based on specified parameters. This indicator is useless for trade, but very good for market analysis.




But this one indicator is not enough. What for practical trading sense to state the fact, after it already happened? No. Therefore, we need an indicator to analyze the situation of the preceding bars desired. For this purpose could be a Simple indicator Pattern Finder. However, it is why it does not display anything (although the idea is. Maybe in settings?) In any case: required indicator is able to search for (and highlight) areas of the market on a selected arbitrary fragment. If who met - will be grateful for "snapping".



Yet second indicator for analysis, will try to flow first through the filter standard (built into MT4) indicators. If they spotted patterns - I will unsubscribe. For those who wish to produce independent observations add the indicator Stream